January Monthly Market Check In

January 11, 2024

2023 was the year of resiliency as mortgage rates increased on average from 6.12% in January to 7.5% as late as October, but now are currently hovering around 6.62% for a 30 year fixed mortgage.  Rates have dropped over 12% in the last two months.  Many people are seeing this trend and are anticipating rates to continue to drop further.  Nonetheless, every time rates drop we see a bit of activity increase.  More demand will continue to surface, the further rates drop.  Average Days on Market is around 87 days from listing to completed sale.  Some properties are sitting on the market, but most are not taking very long to sell even in this slowed market.  It is our expectation that since inventory is holding steady, that demand will continue to increase methodically over the next few months and possibly far beyond.  Remember, this is an election year; so the leaders in power usually do everything they can to make things look better than they really are.  This season might be a great window of opportunity for many buyers and sellers.

We expect the FED to continue pausing or even dropping rates as they have eluded to up to 3 decreases in 2024.  Time will tell how that will transpire, but the markets are reacting positively to the news.  As they digest the monthly CPI and PCE reports, along with other data points, they have been outspoken that their goal is to get down to 2% inflation.  That will continue to take some time.

What does this mean for our local Real Estate market?  Expect Real Estate pricing to continue to hold steady, but more than likely increase through 2024.  2023 held steady with average residential pricing at $491,000, but most experts see that the pent up demand should break open with rates dropping.  As long as people haven’t overspent on their credit cards and damaged their credit in masses, we are expecting a fantastic Spring season.  The jobs reports (Charles Schwab Article) continue to flatter with higher than expected employment numbers, but many of the past reports have been modified to show less than recorded initial numbers.  10 of the last 11 jobs reports showed substantially negative revisions.  What you see isn’t necessarily what you get.  The household survey is probably a better indicator as to how our economy is performing.

Regardless of all of the noise out there, timing is always an important factor.  If it is the right time for you and your family, then don’t let market conditions negatively affect your goals.  Let us know if we can be of any assistance to help you get to where you want to go.

Current Active Listings (All Types)2304Down 9.7% from last month & up 9.4% from this time last year
Current Pending Listings731Down 4.5% from last month & up 2.9% from this time last year
Sold Listings Last Month501Down 10.2% from last month & down 28.7% from this time last year
New Listings Last Month571Down 18% from last month & down 11% from this time last year
Months of Inventory3.40Down 8% from last month & up 32% from this time last year
% List to Sold Ratio98.40%Up 3.3% from last month & even from this time last year
Absorption Rate22%*Even from last month & down 13.6% from this time last year
*Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month
Average Sales Price in All Categories$456,000Up .4% from last month & down 2% from this time last year
Average Residential Sales Price$491,000**Down .2% from last month & even from this time last year
**Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics
Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates6.62%***Down 7% from last month & up 3% from this time last year
***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage+Numbers are rounded

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(503) 385-1518
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