October Monthly Market Real Estate Update

October 11, 2024

As expected the FED dropped rates 50 BP at their September meeting, but now they are facing scrutiny for potentially making some political moves ahead of the election. 

All Real Estate is local.  Here is a snapshot of our current local market and the trends to pay attention to.  

Current Active Listings (All Types)	3015	Down 1.3% from last month & up 18% from this time last year
Current Pending Listings	1024	Up 1.7% from last month & up 6.6% from this time last year
Sold Listings Last Month	696	Down 12% from last month & down 1.6% from this time last year
New Listings Last Month	934	Down 14% from last month & down 1.9% from this time last year
Months of Inventory	4.53	Down 1% from last month & up 24% from this time last year
% List to Sold Ratio	98.41%	Down .2% from last month & down .2% from this time last year
Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month	23%*	Down 11% from last month & down 18% from this time last year
Average Sales Price in All Categories	$472,000	Down .4% from last month & up 4% from this time last year
Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics	$453,000** $503,682**	Down .4% from last month & up 1.8% from this time last year. Down .1% from last month & up 2.1% from this time last year
Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage	6.32%***	Down .4% from last month & down 15.6% from this time last year
Consumer Price Index (CPI) **** All items-FED’s Goal is 2%	2.4%****	Down 4% from last month & down 35% from this time last year

+Some numbers are rounded

The Fed had telegraphed in August that they were going to make a strong rate cut in September, which caused mortgage rates to decrease in the prior month.  Rates have been lower as they were already adjusted in anticipation of the FED meeting.  Once the Fed lowered short term interest rates on September 18th, mortgage rates stayed relatively flat.  The FED argued that rates were cooling down to their 2% goal, which justified a large rate cut, but then the September jobs report came out last Friday showing 254,000 jobs were created.  Although the devil is in the details as the government continues to hire a high amount of employees and many people are continuing to work multiple jobs, the markets reacted late last week which caused mortgage rates to bounce up!  Now we are seeing rates in the mid 6’s on average for mortgages.  These continue to adjust throughout the days, but we expect them to stay relatively flat depending on what the Mortgage Backed Securities/10 year Treasury prices do for the time being.  The jobs reports are usually adjusted lower after more data comes in, however last month they increased the jobs numbers from their initial reporting.

The CPI report for September shows that inflation grew higher than expected at a rate of 2.4% instead of the expected 2.3%.  This is making economists scrutinize the idea that we are consistently heading towards lower inflation.  Did the FED move too quickly?  Possibly, but we will see how the economy adjusts over the next few months, and how the FED reacts to that news.

Real Estate sales were fairly level this past month with a small decline in the number of sales from last month, but also a slight decline from the number of sales from September of 2023.  We saw both the average sales prices and average median prices decrease ever so slightly signifying a stall in appreciation rates for the time being.  The months of inventory (MOI) dropped slightly showing that homes were absorbed at a higher rate in September and we are also seeing an increase in pending sales from last month as well as from last September.  Days on Market have also increased which shows that pricing is ever so important because inventory is sitting longer.  Sellers who are priced well are selling at a higher price and a shorter time frame.  We would not be surprised if we continue to see more price reductions and expired listings in the next few months as we enter the holidays.  Distressed properties continue to be very low, although those numbers are increasing slightly.  The Notice of Default lists do show a few more properties that are entering the distressed stage.  We hope that these homeowners do not face foreclosure, but that may be inevitable.  If you or anyone you know is entering any kind of distressed situation, please let us know.  We can help you position yourself with the best plan to strategize depending on your goals and the outlook of the Real Estate market.

Most people know up to 4 people who will make a move within the year.  Let us know so we can help them. In the meantime, enjoy this Fall.  We look forward to connecting again in November.