November Monthly Market Real Estate Update
November 14, 2024
We are past the election. Whew! We bet you’re happy you’re not seeing any more political ads. We sure are.
During our office meeting we recently took a good look at the real time US Debt Clock. It is sobering, but is a good exercise to try to wrap our brains around what we are faced with. It still amazes us how many people don’t vote when we have insurmountable challenges that our elected leaders make policies for. Some good news is that foreclosures and bankruptcies are still very low.
All Real Estate is local. Here is a snapshot of our current local market and the trends to pay attention to.
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 2909 | Down 3.5% from last month & up 12% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 970 | Down 5.2% from last month & up 14% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 747 | Up 7.3% from last month & up 10.5% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 952 | Up 2% from last month & up 12% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 4.33 | Down 4% from last month & up 15% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.94% | Up .5% from last month & up .8% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 25%* | Up 8.7% from last month & down 3.8% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $471,000 | Down .2% from last month & up 4.4% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $450,000** $501,806** | Down .6% from last month & up 1.1% from this time last year. Down .4% from last month & up 2% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.79%*** | Up 7.4% from last month & down 9.5% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) **** All items-FED’s Goal is 2% | 2.6%**** | Down 4% from last month & down 35% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
You may have missed it, but the FED actually dropped rates 25 Basis Points the day after the election. This really didn’t change mortgage rates, and we believe that the financial markets reacted after the election not because of the FED’s actions, but because of the election results themselves. What the election results did was bring some clarity to which direction the country is headed in the future. For a while we have seen people sit on the sidelines wondering what to expect. When masses agree and move in one direction, markets can see some significant changes. The Dow is currently up over 5% from last Tuesday and Nasdaq is up over 6%. The US Dollar is up 2.5% over the last week and Bitcoin surged over 34.6% over the same 7 day period. Those numbers will probably correct with selloffs soon enough, but new baselines have been established. Markets will always react, but are you putting yourself in a good position to make moves if you need to?
The 10 year Treasury Bond yield prices have been increasing since September so mortgage rates are trending upward as well. We may be around the 6.5% – 7.5% mortgage rate level for some time to come.
The CPI index was reported to have increased .2% for October and is up 2.6% from this time last year. Core was up .3%. These numbers apparently are what the experts expected. It is still not where the FED wants it at 2% on average, so they are faced with some serious decisions. Dropping rates while inflation is still not under control poses some concerning issues. The FED has their work cut out for them. We’ll see how the new chairperson does with this new administration’s agenda. From what we are reading the experts are still expecting the FED to continue rate cuts through the end of the year. We’ll see how they act next month. Owning Real Estate has always been a good hedge against inflation. How many investments do you want to own?
We have seen home prices decrease slightly over the past few months with a drop of .4% from last month’s average. We topped out around $504,000 for an average residential sales price in August and have seen minor declines since then, including the median residential price. Inventory has been increasing over the past couple of years, which has helped our buyers market, but that also has seen the skids recently. We do need more good inventory for buyers to choose from. Many homes are sitting longer because of their inflated prices and some repair and maintenance challenges that they carry. Many homes won’t pass FHA or VA financing standards if they have condition issues including chipping paint for homes built prior to 1978, heavily soiled or missing flooring, unpainted finishes, etc. The best thing homeowners can do is keep their homes maintained well. It will cost you a little now or a lot later. If you don’t receive our quarterly Home Maintenance Checklists, please let us know. They are good reminders to check important systems in your home.
We are expecting the Real Estate Market to continue to trend in a similar direction going through the Winter. When the weather changes for the better, we might be poised to see significantly more sales; depending on the health of the economy. One thing is for sure around the Mid Valley is that people get tired of the long, dark, wet & cold days; and once it warms up people are eager to get moving. If you’re planning a move, let’s get together to discuss the important steps so you can take advantage of it when the time comes.
We wish you all a very Happy Thanksgiving! We hope you are able to share it with the ones you love and are filled with JOY.