January Monthly Market Check In-2025 is shaping up to be Fantastic!
January 15, 2025
We finished the year with a strong valued market overall even with mortgage rates continuing their stubborn ways. However, these rates are fantastic if you look at the historical progression.
All Real Estate is local. Here is a snapshot of our current local market and the trends to pay attention to.
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 2478 | Down 8.8% from last month & up 7.5% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 693 | Down 20% from last month & down 5% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 651 | Down 2% from last month & up 30% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 538 | Down 19% from last month & down 5.7% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 3.60 | Down 10% from last month & up 6% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.20% | Down .2% from last month & down .2% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 26%* | Up 8% from last month & up 18% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $471,000 | Even from last month & up 3.3% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $450,000** $501,214** | Even from last month & up 1.6% from this time last year. Slightly down from last month & up 2% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.93%*** | Up 3.6% from last month & up 4.7% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) **** Core items-FED’s Goal is 2% | 3.2%**** | Down 3% from last month & down 18% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
2024 was another year of stubborn mortgage rates as we will soon be entering our 4th year of this pattern. March of 2022 is when rates started increasing significantly from their historic lows. It’s amazing how quickly 3 years pass by. People are beginning to realize that this financial environment is probably going to stick with us for a while, and with home values holding strong; less people are expecting to time the market. The best advice is to make a move when it is in the best interest of yourself and your family, regardless of what the market is doing. The key takeaways from the year end statistics is that the inventory has dipped considerably yet again, and values are holding a flat line. We are down to 3.6 months of inventory, which is not encouraging buyers with anticipating more selection. We are seeing some homes generate multiple offers, and in some cases sell over asking price. We can only speculate that this Spring may be another strong selling season for sellers.
Some people say that the truth is in the eye of the beholder. Opinions vary, but what is truth? Rates at 7% are still considered good rates according to historical data.
The CPI Report came out this week showing core inflation is up .4% from last month and rose 3.2% over the year, which is still a far cry from the FED’s goal of 2%. With the recent rate cut of 25 Basis Points in December, it may seem to some that the FED isn’t serious about getting on top of the inflationary problem. 2025 will be an interesting year with the change in leadership at the top and their adventurous goals. We are expecting national spending to continue with increased deficits, which will result in mortgage rates to be a challenge to get on top of for the foreseeable future.
The last jobs report that came out on January 10th shows that 256,000 jobs were created in December. Is this true? What are we to believe when the BLS reports massive job growth through all of last year, but then adjusts prior inflated reports when they missed the mark by over 800,000 jobs! Every month sees some kind of adjustment, but this scope of adjustment isn’t normal. It seems they wanted us to believe that the economy was stronger than reality, but the facts seem to have been manipulated. Who can we trust?
Well, we hope you can trust us as your Real Estate experts. When it comes to selling your largest asset or buying your new home, we want to ensure that you have all of the correct information that you need to make an intelligent decision. With the challenges that lie ahead of some home buyers, it is clear to us that by looking at the whole picture gives 20/20 vision. Back in 2021, when ‘every home’ seemed to have 30 offers on them, it was nearly impossible for many buyers to compete because that bidding process often resulted in homes selling $50,000-$100,000 over asking price. That’s a hard pill to swallow when the initial asking prices were already inflated! We would argue that even though rates have increased substantially, buyers can see advantages to paying a fair price for a home without having to extremely overpay in a competing situation. This current environment allows buyers to see equity sooner than if they grossly overpaid for a home. This flexibility also allows buyers to understand that they are not immediately under water if the market changes quickly. Here is a real example that we saw on a daily basis back in 2021 versus a real example of what we see today.
Year 2021
Real Market Value: $500,000
Inflated Sales Price: $575,000
Int Rate: 3%
20% Down- Principal & Interest Debt Service: $1939/monthPrincipal Balance Owed after 10 years: $350,000
Year 2025
Real Market Value: $500,000
Sales Price: $500,000
Int Rate: 7%
20% Down- Principal & Interest Debt Service: $2661/monthPrincipal Balance Owed after 10 years: $343,000
If a buyer can afford the monthly debt service, it can be understood that this current market is more favorable to buyers because they are not hyper-competing for homes by overpaying for them.
Activity is picking up already, which gives us the confidence that we have seen the slowest times in our market through 2023 and 2024. After almost 3 years of a suppressed market, we are due for some better news. We are expecting this Spring to bring out substantially increased activity so let us know if you, or anyone you know, wants to get positioned to take advantage of the upcoming selling season.
Thank you for your support & business in 2024 and we hope 2025 shines brightly on you!