January Monthly Market Check In~A Window of Opportunity!
January 14, 2026
Closing Out a Challenging year
Real Estate continues to show a mix of resilience and hesitation as we closed out the year and step into January. While the volatility that defined much of 2025 has cooled somewhat, the market remains highly sensitive to economic signals, interest rates, and consumer confidence. Over the past year, we’ve seen activity expand and contract repeatedly, often in response to global events, inflation concerns, and shifting expectations around rates. As we enter the new year, the data suggests that many of the same pressures remain in place.
Despite all of this uncertainty, several fundamentals have remained surprisingly stable. Employment has stayed relatively flat, inflation continues to run above the FED’s long-term target, and interest rates—while lower than last year—are still elevated enough to influence buyer behavior. Home values have held steady overall, supported by limited inventory and a market that never truly tipped into oversupply. By definition, we are still operating in a Seller’s Market, although conditions on the ground feel far more balanced than the label implies. In fact our current inventory level is only at 3.88 Months! With some energized buyer activity we are seeing more homes go under contract to begin the new year. As buyers are becoming more comfortable with the interest rates many are putting their pens to the paper and our sellers are seeing their homes go under contract after a bit of a stall in the market.
Federal Reserve Outlook
As we look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, expectations remain cautious and data-dependent. While inflation has shown signs of gradual cooling, it continues to sit above the FED’s long-term target, giving policymakers reason to proceed carefully. Most analysts anticipate that the FED will hold short-term interest rates steady at the upcoming meeting, allowing more time to assess the cumulative effects of prior rate cuts and tightening cycles on the broader economy. The FED has repeatedly emphasized that it does not want to reignite inflation by moving too quickly, nor does it want to overtighten and risk unnecessary economic contraction. As a result, any future rate adjustments are likely to be incremental and driven by incoming inflation, employment, and consumer-spending data. While FED decisions rarely have an immediate or direct impact on mortgage rates, their overall posture continues to influence market sentiment, bond yields, and long-term borrowing costs.
What To Keep An Eye On
Similar to previous years we saw many people hold off from putting their houses on the market as well as many people withdraw their listings during the holidays. This has led to a window of opportunity for sellers. The past few Januarys we have experienced inventory increase dramatically from the numbers published in November and December, and this year more than likely will follow suit. As we get closer to Spring, we are expecting more sellers to enter the market, driving up inventory levels again.
The jobs market reports have been reported low however it is important to note that in previous years, much of the job growth has been government jobs. Those are on the decline. It will be interesting to see Tax Revenue Producing jobs reports in the months to come.
The GDP is increasing with the last report at 4.3%. As it surpasses the inflation levels, we understand we are on the right track economically, which gives greater confidence to consumers.
Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 2613 | Down 14.8% from last month & up 5.5% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 702 | Down 14 % from last month & up 1.3% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 638 | Down 2% from last month & up 6.3% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 588 | Up 15.8% from last month & up 8.7% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 3.88 | Down 14.5% from last month & up 7.8% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.37% | Up .04% from last month & up .5% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 24%* | Up 20% from last month & down 8% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $466,000 | Down 1.3% from last month & down 1.3% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $460,000** $512,430** | Down .3% from last month & up 2.2% from this time last year. Even from last month & up 2% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.16%*** | Down slightly from last month & down 11% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 2.7%**** | Down 10% from last month & down 7% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
We expect this year to rebound with renewed & fresh activity. Many people are feeling optimistic about the economy and the trends that are continuing to show favor. Let us know if you are planning on making a move this year.