February Monthly Market Check In ~ Still Mostly Trending Sideways
February 13, 2026
We are over a month into the new year and we hope you are still successful with your New Year’s Resolutions! Only about 8%-10% of people successfully keep their New Year’s Resolutions, with a significant majority abandoning their goals within the first few months. Roughly 23% of people quit in the first week and 64% give up by the end of January, while 81% fail by the end of February. Those are not great odds of success, but what are you putting your faith in this year?
There is still quite a bit of volatility in the economy and markets which makes it difficult to plan. The Real Estate market ended the year with lower inventory as many sellers hesitated to list their homes and many sellers withdrew their homes off the market during the holidays. This is a typical trend with inventory increasing in January and February. Well, this year seems to be no different as we ended 2025 with 3.88 months of inventory and started out the new year with 3.99 MOI. Many buyers saw an opportunity in the Holiday season to take advantage of the lower interest rates as they also saw inventory drop a little. Pending sales are up from this time last year as well as noting that new listings are down from this time last year. The one thing that is unique with statistics in the new year is that there is very little data to feel confident in. The first quarter stats will show a better picture as for example the average Residential sales price dropped from $512,000 down to $496,000 in January, and the median price fell from $460,000 to $437,000. These prices are rounded, but show the start of the new year at a lower pace even when we compare them to January 2025 statistics. Where are we going from here?
Interest rates continue to trend sideways in the low 6% range. We have seen some rates fall below the level of 6, but comparing fees and APR % rates is important to compare apples to apples. Service also goes a very long way to ensure a good experience. The FED kept their rates unchanged as we expected at their last FOMC meeting, but remember, these rates directly affect short term interest rates. Overall they will have an impact on the economy, which then trickles to the mortgage market, but they do not directly affect the mortgage rates. Inflation continues to be an increasing concern for the FED as they navigate the complexities of their 2% goal. It will be interesting to see the effects of the controversial change in the Chair position as Kevin Warsh takes the helm, but that won’t happen until May.The CPI report that just came out shows that inflation has slowed to 2.4%, down from 2.7% last month and down from 2.8% from this time last year. This is encouraging news, but we will see how the FED responds in their March meetings.
The economy and affordability are still the topics of discussion. Job growth in 2025 was not as high as hoped and January’s job report shows some healthy encouragement as 130,000 jobs were created; mostly in health care. In the past administration many jobs that were created were government jobs, which have been slowed down dramatically. What our economy needs is income and tax revenue producing jobs. People are still struggling with being able to purchase the American Dream of homeownership, but honestly; unless we have a substantial crash, values will be affected very little. Sure, a person can find a motivated seller and get a deal at times, but the majority of the market is not on a large discounted sale. That could happen, but with the lower inventory we are still experiencing, it doesn’t seem like we will see values decrease any measurable amount anytime in the foreseeable future. We have a saying, “Sellers believe it is a seller’s market and buyers believe it is a buyer’s market.” This explains why our market has experienced an increased number of failed transactions as sellers and buyers are having a more difficult time coming together to close a transaction.
Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 2663 | Up 2% from last month & up 2.9% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 887 | Up 26% from last month & up 8.7% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 428 | Down 33% from last month & down 16% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 890 | Up 51% from last month & down 11% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 3.99 | Up 2.8% from last month & up 6.7% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.65% | Up .3% from last month & up .7% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 16%* | Down 33% from last month & down 20% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $467,000 | Up .2% from last month & down .2% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $437,000** $512,430** | Down 5% from last month & down 5.8% from this time last year. Down 3% from last month & down 1.7% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.09%*** | Down slightly from last month & down 11% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 2.4%**** | Down 11% from last month & down 14% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
There are still various uncertainties surrounding affordability, the economy, geopolitical issues, etc; however the fact that the rates continue to be stubborn at the 6% mark will keep a lot of people on the sidelines. Interestingly, MarketWatch reports that the majority of homeowners now carry a rate of over 6% versus ones with a sub 3% rate. This shows that the dam is starting to break as more people are becoming comfortable with making a move regardless of the rates. Welcome to the new normal.