March Monthly Market Check In ~ Are We Poised For Growth This Spring?

March 11, 2026

Instability continues to dominate the headlines as the world remains unsettled.  Many changes are in the air as we navigate geopolitical conflicts, state legislative efforts, stubborn interest rates and slow economic growth.

The statistics are still a little skewed since we are so early in the year.  The average Residential sales price in January was recorded at $496,233. However, inventory dipped dramatically over the holidays which helped values hold well overall.  That month seems to be a one-off.  Now that we are another month into the new year, the real picture is starting to unfold.  We expect values to remain relatively unchanged as they move sideways with inventory under 4 months.  We usually experience more activity as Spring draws near, especially when we see warmer weather.  We definitely experienced that this year as our Winter has been drier and warmer.  Many trees and bushes are starting to bloom, which also encourages people to start to bloom.  Personal energy increases as the weather warms and so does the market.

Things to focus on…

Interest Rates

They continue to slide lower, and are averaging around 6% at the time of this writing.  Global uncertainty continues to threaten the economic outlook as the 10-year Treasury shows a bumpy ride.

CPI Index

The Fed’s traditional goal has been 2%, but many feel this is impossible in this current day and age.  Reports show that February was up .3% to an average of 2.4%; however, the Iran conflict—or war, however you want to characterize it—seems to threaten inflation on many fronts.  The latest CPI also does not take into account the higher oil prices since the conflict began. This is a highly fluid situation that could change trajectory very quickly.  One thing we have learned over the last few years is that the markets do not enjoy uncertainty.  Whenever we have had a larger conflict or impact, we have seen the Real Estate market react negatively.  The next FED meeting is March 17-18, and it is our opinion that based on the current information we would expect the FED to keep interest rates at their current position. Remember, these actions directly affect short term interest rates and not mortgage rates. The new FED Chair will be instituted in May, which is expected to change the course of the Fed.  However, keep in mind that the FOMC has 12 voting members, so the new Chair’s influence is limited.

Spring 2026

Some economists believe the results of the Working Families Tax Cut or One Big Beautiful Bill will start this Spring, however will take time to come to fruition.  Many people are expecting…

• Tax-Free Income: Eliminates federal income taxes on tips (up to $25,000 annually) and overtime pay (up to $12,500 annually) for eligible workers.
• Senior Tax Relief: Provides an additional $6,000 tax deduction for individuals aged 65 and older earning under $75,000 (or $150,000 for joint filers).
• Child Tax Credit Expansion: Increases the credit to $2,200 per child and makes it permanent.
• Car Loan Interest Deduction: Allows a deduction of up to $10,000 for interest paid on loans for new, American-made personal vehicles.
• Trump Savings Accounts: Establishes new “Trump Accounts” for children, with a one-time $1,000 federal contribution for eligible newborns.
• Higher Standard Deduction: Permanently locks in and boosts the standard deduction, estimated at $31,500 for married couples filing jointly in 2025. 
• Full Expensing: Restores 100% bonus depreciation, allowing businesses to immediately deduct the full cost of equipment, machinery, and research and development (R&D) expenses
• Small Business Support: Increases the Section 179 expensing limit to $2.5 million and makes the 20% “Main Street” small business deduction permanent.
• Job Creation: Supporters project the bill will protect or create up to 7.2 million jobs and increase real wages by up to $7,200 per worker.
• Gig Economy Relief: Repeals the requirement for platforms like Venmo and PayPal to report transactions over $600 to the IRS, restoring a higher threshold.

We have been experiencing this downward trend in the Real Estate market for a few years now.  We are poised to see change, however each state is run very differently these days.  Oregon’s legislative leaders tend to believe in higher taxes and spending is the key to success.  It needs to be mentioned that Oregon is expected to lose 1 congressional seat.  This results from slower growth compared to other states or merely a decline in populations.  If we’re not growing, we’re dying.  From our perspective in the Real Estate market, the main causes of housing shortages and higher prices result primarily from over regulation and fees.  Many builders in the Mid Willamette Valley are struggling to make a profit, preventing them from keeping up with demand.  High city and county permit fees, regulations ranging from tree protection to setback rules, and a very slow governmental approval process lead to slower growth.

Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…

Current Active Listings (All Types)	2678	Up .5% from last month & up 3% from this time last year
Current Pending Listings	971	Up 9.4% from last month & up 4.6% from this time last year
Sold Listings Last Month	530	Up 24% from last month & up 13% from this time last year
New Listings Last Month	916	Up 3% from last month & up 4% from this time last year
Months of Inventory	3.99	Unchanged from last month & up 5% from this time last year
% List to Sold Ratio	98.65%	Down 1% from last month & down .8% from this time last year
Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month	20%*	Up 25% from last month & up 11% from this time last year
Average Sales Price in All Categories	$477,000	Up 2% from last month & up 6% from this time last year
Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics	$450,000** $510,743**	Up 3% from last month & unchanged from this time last year. Up 3% from last month & up 3.7% from this time last year
Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage	6.00%***	Down 1.5% from last month & down 10% from this time last year
Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2%	2.4%****	​Up .3% from last month & ​down 14% from this time last year

+Some numbers are rounded

We thank you again for all of your support as we strive to bring knowledge and consultation to our clients.  We want to be your first thought in the Real Estate space.  We hope our efforts in tracking market and economic trends give you confidence that we are the best to represent you in all your Real Estate endeavors.