August Monthly Market Check In ~ K Shaped Real Estate Market
August 14, 2026
Many economists say we are in a K shaped economy and we would say we are in a K shaped Real Estate market. When we look at the numbers, overall sales continue to tick downward, showing a slight 1% decline from last year. This is our 4th consecutive year with declining sales with 2022 being our highest in recent history. Then we retracted 25% in 2023. 0.85% in 2024. 3.65% in 2025 and as of year-to-date, we have 1% fewer sales so far this year. It will be interesting to see where we end up as we have 4 months left of data to collect. Typically we see August transactions slow down slightly as many people have already chosen their homes, are due to close and are moving in during August to prepare for schools beginning in September. Moving forward a few months, we tend to see some sellers take their homes off the market during the holidays, which gives buyers fewer options. However, this year may be different since we haven’t seen this many homes on the market since 2012. When we dig further into the numbers we can see that the increase in average and median sales prices is caused by higher-end properties selling at a higher rate than lower end properties. Our average sales price in our area is $520,538. The number of sales is consistent with last year, down slightly; however when we look at sales above $600,000 we see a 4% increase compared to this time last year. 10% increase in the number of sales above $750,000. We believe this is why we are seeing those averages increase despite a market that generally favors buyers. There are some good deals out there!
Some argue that we are exiting this economy and it looks more like a C-shaped economy. Everyone has their opinions and it is difficult to weed out the experts to find the correct information especially in such a heightened political environment. Going into election years always has its challenges for the real estate market, and it seems as though Mid Term elections are getting more attention as our country becomes more polarized.
Everyone is keeping their eyes on those mortgage interest rates as that is what is keeping most buyers on the sidelines, especially on the lower end. The bond market continues to have challenges, which is why we are seeing higher mortgage rates. If there is a silver lining, the CPI report came out this week showing only a 0.1% increase in inflation from last month and settled in at 3.4 YOY%. That is still far too high, and it’s only one month of improved data this year, but hopefully we will continue to see more of this. In January of this year we started out at 2.4% on average. Energy continues to dominate those headlines, accounting for 15%. Remember, these statistics influence the FED, but their only actions involve manipulating their balance sheet and setting SHORT TERM interest rates within their monetary policies. Their actions do not directly affect mortgage rates. What we are watching are the global markets and investors affecting our treasury bond prices & yields.
Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 3574 | Up 5.7 % from last month & up 6.5% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 1067 | Down 3% from last month & down 4.3% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 749 | Down 1.7% from last month & even from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 1227 | Up 1.8% from last month & down 0.5% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 5.33 | Up 5.5% from last month & up 8% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.10% | Down 0.5% from last month & down 0.4% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 21%* | Down 9% from last month & down 5% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $494,000 | Up 0.4% from last month & up 6% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $462,000** $520,538** | Up 0.4% from last month & up 0.4% from this time last year. Up 0.3% from last month & up 1.5% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.67%*** | Up 2.7% from last month & up 1.4% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 3.4%**** | Up 0.1% from last month & up 17% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
Have a wonderful August, and we hope you have time to spend these days of great weather with the ones you love.
1 Corinthians 13:13