Blog
Salem Oregon Real Estate Market Update- August 2026
September 10, 2026
Inventory is increasing quickly, and the possibility of interest rates way above 7%.
The Real Estate market continues to struggle for sellers as overall inventory is increasing exponentially and mortgage rates are hovering around that 7% mark. In fact, at the time of writing this email, MBS Dashboard shows rates crested over 7% today. All indicators point to increased challenges in our Real Estate market. This discouragement on the seller side should translate to a better opportunity for buyers, but we haven’t seen that convert in large quantities quite yet. There certainly are great buying opportunities, especially in the lower end of the market, but overall prices remain resilient despite the economic outlook. In January we had 3.99 months of inventory on the market. 8 months later we have 5.54 months of inventory. At this rate, we could see inventory crest around 6.5 months by year’s end. However, we typically see a slight reduction in inventory around the holidays. Many people dislike showing their homes around Thanksgiving and Christmas, so they pull them off the market and reassess their strategy after the holidays into early Spring. We expect this to happen this year as well. The mid term elections are also soon upon us, which usually makes things interesting. These changes can cause people to pause until they get a sense of which direction the state is heading. These certainly are interesting times upon us.
What we are seeing is the the bond market is struggling with prices decreasing since institutional investors and governments are not purchasing them as they did before. Many investors are seeing the gains in yields so we can expect mortgage rates to continue on their upward trend. Some buyers may want to get ahead of the increased pricing and purchase before rates go even higher!
Many buyers are watching the Federal Reserve and hoping that future rate cuts will immediately bring mortgage rates down. However, as we have discussed many times in the past, the Fed does not directly control mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are influenced much more by the bond market, particularly longer-term Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities. Investors look at inflation, government borrowing, economic growth and the overall risk of holding long-term bonds. Right now, the bond market is facing some challenges. Longer-term Treasury yields remain elevated, and if investors continue to demand higher returns to hold long-term debt, mortgage rates could stay higher—even if the Federal Reserve lowers short-term interest rates.
In other words, a Fed rate cut can help market sentiment, but it does not guarantee lower mortgage rates. For mortgage rates to meaningfully decline, we will likely need to see stronger demand for bonds, lower longer-term Treasury yields and continued improvement in inflation. For buyers, this means it may be more important to watch the overall bond market than simply waiting for the next Fed announcement. Since the August jobs report came in higher than expected, most people are expecting the FED to keep rates the same; however the next CPI report may show inflation getting further out of hand, so the new FED chair may be faced with an increased dilemma as the president continues to push for lower rate cuts. The next CPI report comes out Friday September 11th.
Here’s a look at the latest Willamette Valley real estate market statistics and how we are trending in our Mid Valley.
MLS Statistics
| Market Indicator | August 2026 | Month over Month | Year over Year |
|---|---|---|---|
 Active Listings | 3,689 | ▲ 3.2% | ▲ 9.6% |
 Pending Listings | 973 | ▼ 8.8% | ▼ 8.3% |
 Sold Listings – All Properties | 729 | ▼ 2.7% | ▼ 8.5% |
 Sold Residential Properties | 560 | — Even | ▼ 3.4% |
 New Listings | 1,118 | ▼ 8.9% | ▲ 6.2% |
 Months of Inventory | 5.54 | ▲ 3.9% | ▲ 11.9% |
 List-to-Sold Ratio | 98.90% | ▲ 0.8% | ▲ 0.2% |
 Absorption Rate* | 20% | ▼ 4.8% | ▼ 16.7% |
 Average Residential Days on Market | 113 Days | ▲ 1.8% | ▲ 17.7% |
Home Prices
| **Price Indicator | August 2026 | Month over Month | Year over Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Sales Price – All Categories | $492,000 | ▼ 0.4% | ▲ 5.8% |
| Median Residential Sales Price | $465,000 | ▲ 0.6% | ▲ 0.4% |
| Average Residential Sales Price | $521,000 | — Even | ▲ 1.8% |
Mortgage Rates
| ***Economic Indicator | August 2026 | Month over Month | Year over Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate | 6.71% | ▲ 0.3% | ▲ 3.2% |
What the Numbers Are Telling Us
August continued to show a market with more inventory and more choices for buyers. Active listings climbed to 3,689, up 3.2% from July and 9.6% from August of last year. Months of inventory also increased to 5.54 months, nearly 12% higher than a year ago.
Buyer activity softened during the month. Pending sales declined 8.8% from July and 8.3% year over year, while total closed sales were down 8.5% compared with August 2025. At the same time, new listings were actually 6.2% higher than a year ago, which continues to add inventory to the market.
Home prices, however, remain remarkably stable. The median residential sales price was $465,000, up slightly from both last month and last year. The average sales price across all categories reached $492,000, approximately 5.8% higher than August 2025.
Homes are also taking longer to sell. Average residential days on market increased to 113 days, nearly 18% longer than a year ago. This reinforces the importance for sellers of accurate pricing, strong presentation and strategic marketing from the moment a property comes to market.
Despite the increase in inventory and longer marketing times, sellers are still receiving an average of 98.9% of list price, indicating that properly positioned homes continue to sell close to asking price.
Overall, the numbers point toward a more balanced and buyer-friendly market, while home values continue to show resilience.
*Absorption rate is based on current active listings compared with sold listings during the previous month.
**Residential statistics based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics.
***Mortgage rate based on 30-year fixed mortgage statistics.
Some figures are rounded.
Have a wonderful start to your Fall and let us know if we can be of service to you!
August Monthly Market Check In ~ K Shaped Real Estate Market
August 14, 2026
Many economists say we are in a K shaped economy and we would say we are in a K shaped Real Estate market. When we look at the numbers, overall sales continue to tick downward, showing a slight 1% decline from last year. This is our 4th consecutive year with declining sales with 2022 being our highest in recent history. Then we retracted 25% in 2023. 0.85% in 2024. 3.65% in 2025 and as of year-to-date, we have 1% fewer sales so far this year. It will be interesting to see where we end up as we have 4 months left of data to collect. Typically we see August transactions slow down slightly as many people have already chosen their homes, are due to close and are moving in during August to prepare for schools beginning in September. Moving forward a few months, we tend to see some sellers take their homes off the market during the holidays, which gives buyers fewer options. However, this year may be different since we haven’t seen this many homes on the market since 2012. When we dig further into the numbers we can see that the increase in average and median sales prices is caused by higher-end properties selling at a higher rate than lower end properties. Our average sales price in our area is $520,538. The number of sales is consistent with last year, down slightly; however when we look at sales above $600,000 we see a 4% increase compared to this time last year. 10% increase in the number of sales above $750,000. We believe this is why we are seeing those averages increase despite a market that generally favors buyers. There are some good deals out there!
Some argue that we are exiting this economy and it looks more like a C-shaped economy. Everyone has their opinions and it is difficult to weed out the experts to find the correct information especially in such a heightened political environment. Going into election years always has its challenges for the real estate market, and it seems as though Mid Term elections are getting more attention as our country becomes more polarized.
Everyone is keeping their eyes on those mortgage interest rates as that is what is keeping most buyers on the sidelines, especially on the lower end. The bond market continues to have challenges, which is why we are seeing higher mortgage rates. If there is a silver lining, the CPI report came out this week showing only a 0.1% increase in inflation from last month and settled in at 3.4 YOY%. That is still far too high, and it’s only one month of improved data this year, but hopefully we will continue to see more of this. In January of this year we started out at 2.4% on average. Energy continues to dominate those headlines, accounting for 15%. Remember, these statistics influence the FED, but their only actions involve manipulating their balance sheet and setting SHORT TERM interest rates within their monetary policies. Their actions do not directly affect mortgage rates. What we are watching are the global markets and investors affecting our treasury bond prices & yields.
Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 3574 | Up 5.7 % from last month & up 6.5% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 1067 | Down 3% from last month & down 4.3% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 749 | Down 1.7% from last month & even from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 1227 | Up 1.8% from last month & down 0.5% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 5.33 | Up 5.5% from last month & up 8% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.10% | Down 0.5% from last month & down 0.4% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 21%* | Down 9% from last month & down 5% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $494,000 | Up 0.4% from last month & up 6% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $462,000** $520,538** | Up 0.4% from last month & up 0.4% from this time last year. Up 0.3% from last month & up 1.5% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.67%*** | Up 2.7% from last month & up 1.4% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 3.4%**** | Up 0.1% from last month & up 17% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
Have a wonderful August, and we hope you have time to spend these days of great weather with the ones you love.
1 Corinthians 13:13
July Monthly Market Check In ~ Are you having the Summer Blues?
July 17, 2026
We hope you are having a wonderful Summer and enjoying the great weather in the region.
We are already half way through July! I keep telling Nina, Christmas is right around the corner. We don’t celebrate Christmas in July, but the real Christmas will soon be upon us. But in the meantime, are you enjoying the gifts of high interest rates, gas and grocery prices? The recent CPI publication showed significant relief in June because the Iran conflict paused briefly, but prices may rise again as tensions mount. We realized these fluctuations had little impact on mortgage interest rates. Many people are still holding onto their 3% rates, but life circumstances are starting to move people out of those. Currently, we are seeing that people still move despite needing a significant reason to do so.
Our first home, purchased in 2000, had an 8% mortgage interest rate. We thought that was pretty good! However, we didn’t have the fancy cars or the high credit card debt that so many people have today. Our desire and goal was to be homeowners at the age of 28. Nowadays the average first time home buyer has reached 40 years old. It is much more difficult for younger people to purchase their first home in our area. Unless you want to move to Arkansas, finding a decent home with a manageable mortgage payment requires much more purchasing power. We see many people blaming our capitalistic society for this, but let me challenge that view: The cause of inflation is the expansion of the money supply. Expanding the money supply results in increasing prices, but that is only an affect of the policy. Unfortunately the policies enacted by leaders in our cities, states and country have only made this worse. The new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh testified on Capitol Hill that the Fed employs 24,000 people. One could argue that fewer people could manage the duties of the Federal Reserve which fall into 5 main categories:
- Managing the money supply
- Supervising Banks
- Maintaining Financial Stability
- Providing Financial Services for Communities
- Operating Payment Systems
One could argue that government has become way too large by this example alone. With the growth of AI, we hope that our systems can evolve into this new era of technology to maintain them. Our country continues to see volatility in politics, geopolitical tensions, livability and social relations. Our markets will not settle down and achieve real stability unless we unite. As Abraham Lincoln once said, “A house divided cannot stand,” but even before that Jesus spoke about this in the book of Matthew. Will we come together?
As we enter the middle of Summer we continue to see the market slug along as inventory rises above 5 months once again. The last time we saw this was in 2015!
In our market, inventory flattens between 5 and 6 months as it increases, becoming a more solid “buyer’s market”. As rates continue to challenge these statistics, we are not seeing more buyers jump off the fence. The YTD statistics for closed transactions are still lagging behind the last 4 years.
Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 3381 | Up 5% from last month & up 1% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 1101 | Down 2.5% from last month & up .6% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 762 | Even from last month & up 3.6% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 1205 | Down 3.7% from last month & down 3% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 5.05 | Up 5% from last month & up 3.5% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.60% | Even from last month & down .3% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 23%* | Down 4% from last month & up 5% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $492,000 | Down .4% from last month & up 6% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $460,000** $519,009** | Up .5% from last month & even from this time last year. Up .4% from last month & up 1.4% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.49%*** | Even from last month & down 2.8% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 3.5%**** | Down 16.6%% from last month & up 30% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
As inventory increases and sales continue their sluggish trend, we see that upper end homes are moving at a higher rate than lower end homes, therefore adjusting the average and median sales prices upward. The higher interest rates have less effect on more affluent buyers as we see their activity hedge against the slower market.
If you would like more detailed information, we are always happy to elaborate!
Enjoy the rest of July!
June Monthly Market Checkin~How Are Sellers Pricing Homes?
June 11, 2026
School is out and it’s time to enjoy the Summer! Or some may say, “Get Off My Lawn!” Summertime usually brings more activity whether that means an increased number of children running through neighborhood lawns or families deciding to sell and move during the Summer break. This is typically when we see activity increase substantially. Although year to date, we continue to see a slower season compared to years past, however many people will decide to make a move in the next couple of months.
Many sellers are still struggling to price their homes effectively. While statistics encouragingly show that average sales prices continue to increase incrementally, buyers are moving much slower and more strategically. 2021 was the banner year after COVID, but buyers are much more calculated these days. The days of buyers overpaying for a home are over and they are analyzing their options to ensure they make wise decisions. We hear many sellers say something like, “We won’t give the home away.” Although we certainly understand what they mean, it is important for all sellers to realize that the market has been a seller’s market for 15 years and it is now cycling. We can summarize pricing into 3 categories.
Aspirational Pricing. Does your home have a WOW or celebrity factor that is uniquely desired by everyone?
Market Value Pricing. This is the pricing range that most real estate agents suggest after a well documented analysis of the full market and your home’s value proposition.
Event Driven Pricing. This strategy prices at the lower end of the range to create demand. We still occasionally see bidding wars on nicely priced homes.
The market always determines the sales price.
The market speaks. If homes receive good online views but no showings, the price or condition is usually too unattractive. If the home is receiving personal showings but no offers, it is usually a functionality or livability issue that price is not overcoming. An attractively priced home will receive multiple showings and should have more than 1 interested party within a 3 month period. We tell our sellers that we will have a very clear idea of how the market is responding to their specific house within 3 weeks. Although most homes currently take an average of over 100 days to close from the time of active marketing, it doesn’t have to be this way. Many sellers overprice their homes to continue to “test” the market. This strategy often results in a stale listing and ultimately a lower sales price than if the seller had just priced it to create a demand right out of the gate. In our experience, if a home receives 5-8 personal showings with no offers, it is time to make some adjustments.
Unfortunately the fight against inflation took a huge blow with the latest results showing the CPI grew at .5% from last month to a 12 month average of 4.2%. The main culprits continue to be energy, up 23.5% from last year (Thanks Iran War), Airline Fares up 26.7% YOY.
The new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh has his work cut out for him, as his first meeting is scheduled for next week. We expect the FED to keep rates the same due to pressure from the administration. There is much speculation about the conclusion of the Iran War, which always seems to be just a few days away. In all honesty, we believe they should raise rates to get ahead of this growing issue.
Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 3215 | Up 6.6% from last month & up 3% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 1129 | Up 4% from last month & up 3% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 761 | Up 7.3% from last month & up 3.5% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 1251 | Up 6% from last month & up .5% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 4.81 | Up 6.8% from last month & down 1.4% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.60% | Up .6% from last month & down 3.5% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 24%* | Even from last month & up 9% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $494,000 | Down .6% from last month & up 6% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $457,500** $517,059** | Up .3% from last month & down .4% from this time last year. Up .4% from last month & up 1% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.48%*** | Down .6% from last month & down 2.8% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 4.2%**** | Up .5% from last month & up 55% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
Whether you are enjoying the Summer or yelling at kids as they run across your beautifully manicured yard, we hope you find this season to be one to celebrate.
July 4th is right around the corner and 250 years is something worth celebrating!
May Monthly Market Check In ~ What Goes Up Must Come Down?
May 13, 2026
We have been discussing a lot within our company about the tools of AI and how quickly this innovation is moving forward in the Real Estate industry. It is said that AI won’t take away real estate jobs, but people who are using AI will take away those real estate jobs. Last month we highlighted the value in AI staging and how that is giving sellers another option to showcase their homes providing the virtual comfort of staging within photos and videos. This is also a service to buyers as many people do not have the ability to visualize how a space could look or feel and virtual staging gives that extra element to provide some confidence when making one of the largest purchases in their lives.
Another form of AI that we are integrating is through marketing and advertising. Certain keywords and phrases give higher exposure in marketing our listings, and we focus on using certain phrases that people are using to attract the AI web scraping tools. When buyers search for certain amenities and demographics for a prospective home in their desired area, the AI platforms can weed through the criteria to expose the highest level of prospective homes available for clients. Instead of searching through the big Real Estate technology platforms by using filters, they can simply type in what they are looking for and expose a list of homes that match closely to their desired outcome.
This technology is moving quickly and is being sharpened as we speak. Where will be next year or 10 years from now? It is exciting to see how AI is helping our industry as we serve our clients’ needs.
Unfortunately we are still trending to higher interest rates and higher real estate costs this month. Inventory continues to creep up at 4.5 months, which is technically still a seller’s market by definition; however we are experiencing buyers act like it is more of a buyers market than it really is. Most of that reasoning is because many buyers are holding off on the sidelines as they witness interest rates continue to bounce along week to week and are currently sitting in the mid 6’s. Values are staying fairly flat, but with a minimal uptick as median and average sales prices increased from last month. The Spring selling season is upon us and as families close out the school year we should see more people focus their attention on making moves in the early Summer months.
What is going on with inflation?! Up .6% for the month and 3.8% YOY, this is not good news. Energy is the leading cause of that as we continue to pray for a resolution to the Iran conflict. How can prices come down when Oil is up 54%, Gasoline is up 28% and energy commodities are up 29%? Of course everything else is going to go up, as we see food is up 3.2% and apparel is up 4.2%. Shelter is also up 3.3%. Eventually this trend will shift and prices will come down, however it can be argued that once a new benchmark is set, it is difficult for the markets to retract without some kind of correction. Although inflation rates are on a rollercoaster, many prices seem to continue as established.
It seems people continue to shop! Consumer debt continues to soar as the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis nicely graphs it for us to track.
As a whole, our market continues to stay resilient. There are some properties that sell quickly, but the broad story is that it is taking longer for most homes to sell. Pricing continues to be an interesting target to hit. Our days on market are at 111 days on average as most homes are taking a few months to sell. As of Year to Date we continue to slide slightly lower in total sales over the past 3 years. In 2022 we had 2398 sales, 2024 we had 2429 sales, 2025 we had 2354 sales and this year we’ve had 2305 sales at the end of April. Overall the market seems to be moving sideways even though our Average Sales Price hit another all time high at $515,423.
Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 3017 | Up 7.4% from last month & up 5% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 1085 | Up 2% from last month & up .6% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 709 | Up 11% from last month & .4% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 1178 | Up 5% from last month & down 4.5% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 4.5 | Up 4.5% from last month & up 8% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.01% | Down .2% from last month & even from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 24%* | Up 4% from last month & down 4% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $497,000 | Down 2% from last month & up 8% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $456,000** $515,423** | Up .2% from last month & up 1% from this time last year. Up .4% from last month & up 3% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.52%*** | Up 2% from last month & down 3.5% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 3.8%**** | Up 15% from last month & up 65% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
We hope you have a continued pleasant Spring and that this Summer brings you a lot of sunshine and Joy. If there is anything we can do for you, we are here to help.