Blog
April Market Check In ~ Is The Spring Selling Season Upon Us?
April 17, 2026
We hope you are enjoying this Spring season! We have had some incredible weather early this Spring and the nicer weather usually translates to more activity. More about that later, but first…
We use exciting and realistic virtual imaging software for some of our vacant listings if we are not able to incorporate our full home staging option for our sellers. AI technology has advanced recently, providing a high quality virtual tour experience. Although we must label the virtual staging for representation, it really warms up a room. We must have high quality photos to make this technology realistic, but with 100% of home buyers shopping online, their first impressions are crucial. Here are a couple of examples…
We are also using AI to write attractive ads for the MLS and social media, targeting demographics and language that captures the home buyer’s attention.
This year we are seeing a mixed bag of results in the latest statistical data reports. Pending sales have increased 3.5% from this time last year, but closed sales are down 3.7% from last year. In fact, overall sales year-to-date are still declining this year compared to the past 3 years as noted in the image below. Buyer sentiment is down, which is stifling the market that should be picking up in the near future. We are always trying to focus on where the market is trending, but it has honestly been a bit of a challenge lately.
Unsettled times still dominate the headlines with stubborn interest rates and Middle East unrest. The last CPI Report accounted for the increased cost of oil and settled up 0.9% for the month, reaching 3.3% YOY. This has caused higher concern regarding increased inflation, but some say it’s isolated to the Iran conflict. Other items, including apparel, also drove the numbers, so the change isn’t solely due to oil.
Mortgage rates are still hovering high above the 6% mark. This has been the most discouraging aspect of the real estate market. As rates finally dropped below the 6% mark, buyers felt confident in making more purchases.
Buyers who locked in their rates prior to the conflict made sure to stick with their transactions as they saw the expensive consequences of starting over. Buyers who didn’t lock in their rate prior to the conflict rushed to do so before rates rose higher than affordability; however, a pool of buyers are putting their purchases on hold hoping that rates will decline soon. Pending sales should hold pretty strong, but we do expect inventory to continue to increase as buyer activity has slowed over the last month. It will be interesting to see how that activity picks up as families decide to make moves between school years.
One thing we know for sure is that the market can flip on a dime. The volatility in the markets has proven that buyer sentiment can change quickly. It reminds us of how a small boat is tossed back and forth depending on the winds and waves of change, and people are no different. Consider the volatility of the Fear and Greed Index along with the sawtooth graph of Consumer Sentiment over the recent past. Do you see any stability here? We sure don’t.
Entering the 2nd quarter allows us to rely more on the data. Earlier in the year, data can be misconstrued based on averages because there isn’t enough time to get a good handle on the statistics. We often rely on our intuition regarding what we see on the front lines, which is valuable because the data is always delayed. Currently, the market has cooled and buyers are mostly holding off compared to what we would expect for April. We’re hoping for a change in the winds toward a calmer and more stable economic culture so people can have the confidence to plan and prepare. The FED’s next meeting is near the end of the month so there is plenty of time for activity to rest or for more chaos to challenge the markets. At the time of this writing, we expect the FED to hold its current rate of 3.50%-3.75%, but we wouldn’t be surprised if they raised rates by 25 basis points because concerns about higher inflation persist.
Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 2809 | Up 5% from last month & up 5% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 1061 | Up 9% from last month & up 3.5% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 639 | Up 21% from last month & down 3.7% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 1128 | Up 23% from last month & up 3% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 4.19 | Up 5% from last month & up 8% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.25% | Up .6% from last month & down 1% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 23%* | Up 15% from last month & down 8% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $506,000 | Up 6% from last month & up 10% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $455,000** $512,600** | Up 1% from last month & up 1% from this time last year. Up .3% from last month & up 3.3% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.37%*** | Up 6% from last month & down 4% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 3.3%**** | Up 37% from last month & up 37% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
Thank you again for trusting us with all of your Real Estate needs. Let us know if you have any questions or concerns!
March Monthly Market Check In ~ Are We Poised For Growth This Spring?
March 11, 2026
Instability continues to dominate the headlines as the world remains unsettled. Many changes are in the air as we navigate geopolitical conflicts, state legislative efforts, stubborn interest rates and slow economic growth.
The statistics are still a little skewed since we are so early in the year. The average Residential sales price in January was recorded at $496,233. However, inventory dipped dramatically over the holidays which helped values hold well overall. That month seems to be a one-off. Now that we are another month into the new year, the real picture is starting to unfold. We expect values to remain relatively unchanged as they move sideways with inventory under 4 months. We usually experience more activity as Spring draws near, especially when we see warmer weather. We definitely experienced that this year as our Winter has been drier and warmer. Many trees and bushes are starting to bloom, which also encourages people to start to bloom. Personal energy increases as the weather warms and so does the market.
Things to focus on…
Interest Rates
They continue to slide lower, and are averaging around 6% at the time of this writing. Global uncertainty continues to threaten the economic outlook as the 10-year Treasury shows a bumpy ride.
CPI Index
The Fed’s traditional goal has been 2%, but many feel this is impossible in this current day and age. Reports show that February was up .3% to an average of 2.4%; however, the Iran conflict—or war, however you want to characterize it—seems to threaten inflation on many fronts. The latest CPI also does not take into account the higher oil prices since the conflict began. This is a highly fluid situation that could change trajectory very quickly. One thing we have learned over the last few years is that the markets do not enjoy uncertainty. Whenever we have had a larger conflict or impact, we have seen the Real Estate market react negatively. The next FED meeting is March 17-18, and it is our opinion that based on the current information we would expect the FED to keep interest rates at their current position. Remember, these actions directly affect short term interest rates and not mortgage rates. The new FED Chair will be instituted in May, which is expected to change the course of the Fed. However, keep in mind that the FOMC has 12 voting members, so the new Chair’s influence is limited.
Spring 2026
Some economists believe the results of the Working Families Tax Cut or One Big Beautiful Bill will start this Spring, however will take time to come to fruition. Many people are expecting…
- Tax-Free Income: Eliminates federal income taxes on tips (up to $25,000 annually) and overtime pay (up to $12,500 annually) for eligible workers.
- Senior Tax Relief: Provides an additional $6,000 tax deduction for individuals aged 65 and older earning under $75,000 (or $150,000 for joint filers).
- Child Tax Credit Expansion: Increases the credit to $2,200 per child and makes it permanent.
- Car Loan Interest Deduction: Allows a deduction of up to $10,000 for interest paid on loans for new, American-made personal vehicles.
- Trump Savings Accounts: Establishes new “Trump Accounts” for children, with a one-time $1,000 federal contribution for eligible newborns.
- Higher Standard Deduction: Permanently locks in and boosts the standard deduction, estimated at $31,500 for married couples filing jointly in 2025.
- Full Expensing: Restores 100% bonus depreciation, allowing businesses to immediately deduct the full cost of equipment, machinery, and research and development (R&D) expenses
- Small Business Support: Increases the Section 179 expensing limit to $2.5 million and makes the 20% “Main Street” small business deduction permanent.
- Job Creation: Supporters project the bill will protect or create up to 7.2 million jobs and increase real wages by up to $7,200 per worker.
- Gig Economy Relief: Repeals the requirement for platforms like Venmo and PayPal to report transactions over $600 to the IRS, restoring a higher threshold.
We have been experiencing this downward trend in the Real Estate market for a few years now. We are poised to see change, however each state is run very differently these days. Oregon’s legislative leaders tend to believe in higher taxes and spending is the key to success. It needs to be mentioned that Oregon is expected to lose 1 congressional seat. This results from slower growth compared to other states or merely a decline in populations. If we’re not growing, we’re dying. From our perspective in the Real Estate market, the main causes of housing shortages and higher prices result primarily from over regulation and fees. Many builders in the Mid Willamette Valley are struggling to make a profit, preventing them from keeping up with demand. High city and county permit fees, regulations ranging from tree protection to setback rules, and a very slow governmental approval process lead to slower growth.
Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 2678 | Up .5% from last month & up 3% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 971 | Up 9.4% from last month & up 4.6% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 530 | Up 24% from last month & up 13% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 916 | Up 3% from last month & up 4% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 3.99 | Unchanged from last month & up 5% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.65% | Down 1% from last month & down .8% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 20%* | Up 25% from last month & up 11% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $477,000 | Up 2% from last month & up 6% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $450,000** $510,743** | Up 3% from last month & unchanged from this time last year. Up 3% from last month & up 3.7% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.00%*** | Down 1.5% from last month & down 10% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 2.4%**** | Up .3% from last month & down 14% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
We thank you again for all of your support as we strive to bring knowledge and consultation to our clients. We want to be your first thought in the Real Estate space. We hope our efforts in tracking market and economic trends give you confidence that we are the best to represent you in all your Real Estate endeavors.
February Monthly Market Check In ~ Still Mostly Trending Sideways
February 13, 2026
We are over a month into the new year and we hope you are still successful with your New Year’s Resolutions! Only about 8%-10% of people successfully keep their New Year’s Resolutions, with a significant majority abandoning their goals within the first few months. Roughly 23% of people quit in the first week and 64% give up by the end of January, while 81% fail by the end of February. Those are not great odds of success, but what are you putting your faith in this year?
There is still quite a bit of volatility in the economy and markets which makes it difficult to plan. The Real Estate market ended the year with lower inventory as many sellers hesitated to list their homes and many sellers withdrew their homes off the market during the holidays. This is a typical trend with inventory increasing in January and February. Well, this year seems to be no different as we ended 2025 with 3.88 months of inventory and started out the new year with 3.99 MOI. Many buyers saw an opportunity in the Holiday season to take advantage of the lower interest rates as they also saw inventory drop a little. Pending sales are up from this time last year as well as noting that new listings are down from this time last year. The one thing that is unique with statistics in the new year is that there is very little data to feel confident in. The first quarter stats will show a better picture as for example the average Residential sales price dropped from $512,000 down to $496,000 in January, and the median price fell from $460,000 to $437,000. These prices are rounded, but show the start of the new year at a lower pace even when we compare them to January 2025 statistics. Where are we going from here?
Interest rates continue to trend sideways in the low 6% range. We have seen some rates fall below the level of 6, but comparing fees and APR % rates is important to compare apples to apples. Service also goes a very long way to ensure a good experience. The FED kept their rates unchanged as we expected at their last FOMC meeting, but remember, these rates directly affect short term interest rates. Overall they will have an impact on the economy, which then trickles to the mortgage market, but they do not directly affect the mortgage rates. Inflation continues to be an increasing concern for the FED as they navigate the complexities of their 2% goal. It will be interesting to see the effects of the controversial change in the Chair position as Kevin Warsh takes the helm, but that won’t happen until May.The CPI report that just came out shows that inflation has slowed to 2.4%, down from 2.7% last month and down from 2.8% from this time last year. This is encouraging news, but we will see how the FED responds in their March meetings.
The economy and affordability are still the topics of discussion. Job growth in 2025 was not as high as hoped and January’s job report shows some healthy encouragement as 130,000 jobs were created; mostly in health care. In the past administration many jobs that were created were government jobs, which have been slowed down dramatically. What our economy needs is income and tax revenue producing jobs. People are still struggling with being able to purchase the American Dream of homeownership, but honestly; unless we have a substantial crash, values will be affected very little. Sure, a person can find a motivated seller and get a deal at times, but the majority of the market is not on a large discounted sale. That could happen, but with the lower inventory we are still experiencing, it doesn’t seem like we will see values decrease any measurable amount anytime in the foreseeable future. We have a saying, “Sellers believe it is a seller’s market and buyers believe it is a buyer’s market.” This explains why our market has experienced an increased number of failed transactions as sellers and buyers are having a more difficult time coming together to close a transaction.
Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 2663 | Up 2% from last month & up 2.9% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 887 | Up 26% from last month & up 8.7% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 428 | Down 33% from last month & down 16% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 890 | Up 51% from last month & down 11% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 3.99 | Up 2.8% from last month & up 6.7% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.65% | Up .3% from last month & up .7% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 16%* | Down 33% from last month & down 20% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $467,000 | Up .2% from last month & down .2% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $437,000** $512,430** | Down 5% from last month & down 5.8% from this time last year. Down 3% from last month & down 1.7% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.09%*** | Down slightly from last month & down 11% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 2.4%**** | Down 11% from last month & down 14% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
There are still various uncertainties surrounding affordability, the economy, geopolitical issues, etc; however the fact that the rates continue to be stubborn at the 6% mark will keep a lot of people on the sidelines. Interestingly, MarketWatch reports that the majority of homeowners now carry a rate of over 6% versus ones with a sub 3% rate. This shows that the dam is starting to break as more people are becoming comfortable with making a move regardless of the rates. Welcome to the new normal.
Home Maintenance Checklist
January 14, 2026
Winter:
- Crawl under the house & look for water penetrations, vapor barrier problems, pests, plumbing leaks, insulation problems, and broken foundation vent screens. Consider an energy audit. Add insulation to the floor and water supply pipes if absent.
- Keep foundation vents open year round except for during freezing periods.
- Crawl the attic & look at roof understructure for leaks & evidence of mold and fungus. Ensure all vents are venting out. Consider adding insulation to the attic if appropriate.
- Replace furnace filter.
- Reverse ceiling fans. Switch in Summer.
- Clean window weep holes.
- Clean out gutters.
- Prune trees and plants. Fertilize with a 16-16-16 blend.
- Service lawn equipment.
- Clean out & prepare garden & flower beds adding compost.
Spring:
- Clean interior cracks, crevices, baseboards & trim.
- Clean refrigerator coils.
- Professionally clean carpets.
- Treat moss on the roof.
- Wash exterior of house & prepare for caulking & painting.
- Inspect for rot.
- Clean out and wash the interior & exterior of gutters.
- Check downspouts.
- Clean out window tracks.
- Treat moss and weeds in lawns & flower beds.
- Overseed lawn in areas where needed.
- Apply a pre-emergent to flower beds.
- Fertilize lawn with Weed & Feed fertilizer.
- Prepare underground sprinkler system for Summer.
- Inspect backflow valve.
- Service AC or heat pump unit.
- Provide privacy: plant trees or hedges.
- Plant your garden.
Summer:
- Service furnace and air conditioning unit/heat pump.
- Remove earth to siding & trim and inspect areas of potential rot. Replace if necessary.
- Caulk & paint exterior siding and trim where needed. Pick one side a year to minimize the work.
- Adjust lawn sprinklers so they do not hit your house and other structures.
- Inspect roof for damaged shingles & caulk vents and pipe jacks where needed.
- Stain/seal decks and concrete when needed (every 2-3 years).
- Fertilize lawn with slow release high nitrogen complete fertilizer.
- Cut plants away from roof, siding & trim.
- Clean underneath and behind the stove & fridge.
- Clean and organize kitchen cupboards.
- Drain your water heater.
- Reverse ceiling fans. Switch in Winter.
Fall:
- Clean out gutters
- Fertilize lawn w/winterizer & fungicide (if needed)
- Apply a pre-emergent to lawn
- Clean out dryer vent
- Clean HVAC heating ducts every 5 years
- Clean bathroom and utility fans, return heat vent
- Service furnace & replace filter
- Check smoke & CO detectors. Keep updated.
- Trim vegetation from roof & siding
- Inspect roof vents
- Remove debris from roof structure
- Treat roof w/ moss killer
- Have a sewer scope completed or pump septic tank every 5 years
- Sweep chimney & clean out fireplace
- Service gas fireplace units
- Winterize Sprinkler System
*It can be very expensive to sell a maintenance deferred property! Ensuring these items are addressed will keep your property in good condition and save thousands of dollars over time.
It is advised to hire licensed & bonded contractors to perform inspections and repairs.
January Monthly Market Check In~A Window of Opportunity!
January 14, 2026
Closing Out a Challenging year
Real Estate continues to show a mix of resilience and hesitation as we closed out the year and step into January. While the volatility that defined much of 2025 has cooled somewhat, the market remains highly sensitive to economic signals, interest rates, and consumer confidence. Over the past year, we’ve seen activity expand and contract repeatedly, often in response to global events, inflation concerns, and shifting expectations around rates. As we enter the new year, the data suggests that many of the same pressures remain in place.
Despite all of this uncertainty, several fundamentals have remained surprisingly stable. Employment has stayed relatively flat, inflation continues to run above the FED’s long-term target, and interest rates—while lower than last year—are still elevated enough to influence buyer behavior. Home values have held steady overall, supported by limited inventory and a market that never truly tipped into oversupply. By definition, we are still operating in a Seller’s Market, although conditions on the ground feel far more balanced than the label implies. In fact our current inventory level is only at 3.88 Months! With some energized buyer activity we are seeing more homes go under contract to begin the new year. As buyers are becoming more comfortable with the interest rates many are putting their pens to the paper and our sellers are seeing their homes go under contract after a bit of a stall in the market.
Federal Reserve Outlook
As we look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting, expectations remain cautious and data-dependent. While inflation has shown signs of gradual cooling, it continues to sit above the FED’s long-term target, giving policymakers reason to proceed carefully. Most analysts anticipate that the FED will hold short-term interest rates steady at the upcoming meeting, allowing more time to assess the cumulative effects of prior rate cuts and tightening cycles on the broader economy. The FED has repeatedly emphasized that it does not want to reignite inflation by moving too quickly, nor does it want to overtighten and risk unnecessary economic contraction. As a result, any future rate adjustments are likely to be incremental and driven by incoming inflation, employment, and consumer-spending data. While FED decisions rarely have an immediate or direct impact on mortgage rates, their overall posture continues to influence market sentiment, bond yields, and long-term borrowing costs.
What To Keep An Eye On
Similar to previous years we saw many people hold off from putting their houses on the market as well as many people withdraw their listings during the holidays. This has led to a window of opportunity for sellers. The past few Januarys we have experienced inventory increase dramatically from the numbers published in November and December, and this year more than likely will follow suit. As we get closer to Spring, we are expecting more sellers to enter the market, driving up inventory levels again.
The jobs market reports have been reported low however it is important to note that in previous years, much of the job growth has been government jobs. Those are on the decline. It will be interesting to see Tax Revenue Producing jobs reports in the months to come.
The GDP is increasing with the last report at 4.3%. As it surpasses the inflation levels, we understand we are on the right track economically, which gives greater confidence to consumers.
Here is a snapshot of our Real Estate trends in the valley…
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 2613 | Down 14.8% from last month & up 5.5% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 702 | Down 14 % from last month & up 1.3% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 638 | Down 2% from last month & up 6.3% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 588 | Up 15.8% from last month & up 8.7% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 3.88 | Down 14.5% from last month & up 7.8% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.37% | Up .04% from last month & up .5% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 24%* | Up 20% from last month & down 8% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $466,000 | Down 1.3% from last month & down 1.3% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $460,000** $512,430** | Down .3% from last month & up 2.2% from this time last year. Even from last month & up 2% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.16%*** | Down slightly from last month & down 11% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index Average (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 2.7%**** | Down 10% from last month & down 7% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
We expect this year to rebound with renewed & fresh activity. Many people are feeling optimistic about the economy and the trends that are continuing to show favor. Let us know if you are planning on making a move this year.