Salem Oregon Real Estate Market Update- August 2026
Inventory is increasing quickly, and the possibility of interest rates way above 7%.
The Real Estate market continues to struggle for sellers as overall inventory is increasing exponentially and mortgage rates are hovering around that 7% mark. In fact, at the time of writing this email, MBS Dashboard shows rates crested over 7% today. All indicators point to increased challenges in our Real Estate market. This discouragement on the seller side should translate to a better opportunity for buyers, but we haven’t seen that convert in large quantities quite yet. There certainly are great buying opportunities, especially in the lower end of the market, but overall prices remain resilient despite the economic outlook. In January we had 3.99 months of inventory on the market. 8 months later we have 5.54 months of inventory. At this rate, we could see inventory crest around 6.5 months by year’s end. However, we typically see a slight reduction in inventory around the holidays. Many people dislike showing their homes around Thanksgiving and Christmas, so they pull them off the market and reassess their strategy after the holidays into early Spring. We expect this to happen this year as well. The mid term elections are also soon upon us, which usually makes things interesting. These changes can cause people to pause until they get a sense of which direction the state is heading. These certainly are interesting times upon us.
What we are seeing is the the bond market is struggling with prices decreasing since institutional investors and governments are not purchasing them as they did before. Many investors are seeing the gains in yields so we can expect mortgage rates to continue on their upward trend. Some buyers may want to get ahead of the increased pricing and purchase before rates go even higher!
Many buyers are watching the Federal Reserve and hoping that future rate cuts will immediately bring mortgage rates down. However, as we have discussed many times in the past, the Fed does not directly control mortgage rates. Mortgage rates are influenced much more by the bond market, particularly longer-term Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities. Investors look at inflation, government borrowing, economic growth and the overall risk of holding long-term bonds. Right now, the bond market is facing some challenges. Longer-term Treasury yields remain elevated, and if investors continue to demand higher returns to hold long-term debt, mortgage rates could stay higher—even if the Federal Reserve lowers short-term interest rates.
In other words, a Fed rate cut can help market sentiment, but it does not guarantee lower mortgage rates. For mortgage rates to meaningfully decline, we will likely need to see stronger demand for bonds, lower longer-term Treasury yields and continued improvement in inflation. For buyers, this means it may be more important to watch the overall bond market than simply waiting for the next Fed announcement. Since the August jobs report came in higher than expected, most people are expecting the FED to keep rates the same; however the next CPI report may show inflation getting further out of hand, so the new FED chair may be faced with an increased dilemma as the president continues to push for lower rate cuts. The next CPI report comes out Friday September 11th.
Here’s a look at the latest Willamette Valley real estate market statistics and how we are trending in our Mid Valley.
MLS Statistics
| Market Indicator | August 2026 | Month over Month | Year over Year |
|---|---|---|---|
 Active Listings | 3,689 | ▲ 3.2% | ▲ 9.6% |
 Pending Listings | 973 | ▼ 8.8% | ▼ 8.3% |
 Sold Listings – All Properties | 729 | ▼ 2.7% | ▼ 8.5% |
 Sold Residential Properties | 560 | — Even | ▼ 3.4% |
 New Listings | 1,118 | ▼ 8.9% | ▲ 6.2% |
 Months of Inventory | 5.54 | ▲ 3.9% | ▲ 11.9% |
 List-to-Sold Ratio | 98.90% | ▲ 0.8% | ▲ 0.2% |
 Absorption Rate* | 20% | ▼ 4.8% | ▼ 16.7% |
 Average Residential Days on Market | 113 Days | ▲ 1.8% | ▲ 17.7% |
Home Prices
| **Price Indicator | August 2026 | Month over Month | Year over Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average Sales Price – All Categories | $492,000 | ▼ 0.4% | ▲ 5.8% |
| Median Residential Sales Price | $465,000 | ▲ 0.6% | ▲ 0.4% |
| Average Residential Sales Price | $521,000 | — Even | ▲ 1.8% |
Mortgage Rates
| ***Economic Indicator | August 2026 | Month over Month | Year over Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate | 6.71% | ▲ 0.3% | ▲ 3.2% |
What the Numbers Are Telling Us
August continued to show a market with more inventory and more choices for buyers. Active listings climbed to 3,689, up 3.2% from July and 9.6% from August of last year. Months of inventory also increased to 5.54 months, nearly 12% higher than a year ago.
Buyer activity softened during the month. Pending sales declined 8.8% from July and 8.3% year over year, while total closed sales were down 8.5% compared with August 2025. At the same time, new listings were actually 6.2% higher than a year ago, which continues to add inventory to the market.
Home prices, however, remain remarkably stable. The median residential sales price was $465,000, up slightly from both last month and last year. The average sales price across all categories reached $492,000, approximately 5.8% higher than August 2025.
Homes are also taking longer to sell. Average residential days on market increased to 113 days, nearly 18% longer than a year ago. This reinforces the importance for sellers of accurate pricing, strong presentation and strategic marketing from the moment a property comes to market.
Despite the increase in inventory and longer marketing times, sellers are still receiving an average of 98.9% of list price, indicating that properly positioned homes continue to sell close to asking price.
Overall, the numbers point toward a more balanced and buyer-friendly market, while home values continue to show resilience.
*Absorption rate is based on current active listings compared with sold listings during the previous month.
**Residential statistics based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics.
***Mortgage rate based on 30-year fixed mortgage statistics.
Some figures are rounded.
Have a wonderful start to your Fall and let us know if we can be of service to you!
September Monthly Market Real Estate Update
The markets are showing some more increased activity as mortgage rates are continuing to trend downward. The FED is meeting on September 17-18th!
All Real Estate is local. Here is a snapshot of our current local market and the trends to pay attention to.
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 3055 | Up 1% from last month & up 17% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 1007 | Down 8% from last month & down 5.3% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 792 | Down 1.6% from last month & up 8.6% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 1085 | Down 9% from last month & down 3.4% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 4.58 | Up 2% from last month & up 25% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.60% | Down .3% from last month & down .6% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 26%* | Down 3% from last month & down 26% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $474,000 | Down .2% from last month & up .9% from this time last year |
| Median Residential Sales Price Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $455,000** $504,162** | Up .6% from last month & up 2.9% from this time last year. Up .5% from last month & up 2.2% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.35%*** | Down 1.9% from last month & down 11.4% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) **** All items-FED’s Goal is 2% | 2.5%**** | Down 14.8% from last month & down 39% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are roundedWe are enjoying some increased sales activity in our office as rates have decreased over the past few months. Home buyers are seeing opportunities that weren’t here before. Many sellers are working through the commission structure overhaul with ease and understanding the value of the extra layer of negotiations with buyers. Buyers are grasping it as well as they are negotiating those commissions. We have seen that inventory increased slightly in August, but slowed dramatically from the high increases over the past few months. Average sales price continues to increase as Days on Market has decreased as we are still seeing the nicer homes sell quicker as some continue to experience multiple offers if they are priced well. After choosing the right agent, pricing well is the most important decision for sellers at this time. There are over 3300 agents in our small Mid Valley area, where only about 800 have sold a handful or more and approximately 1500 agents have not sold one home this year. Many have only sold one or two. Experience Matters ~ Choose Wisely. We are entering into more of a balanced buyer/seller market at over 4 & 1/2 months of standing available inventory. We expect this to continue to increase, growing further into more of a balanced, but yet more of a buyer’s market.
We often communicate that our PEP Talk is the foundation for sellers to consider in selling their homes. Price, Exposure & Presentation. Pricing correctly is ‘paramount’ right now in a market like this. No one can tell you what your home is worth until the highest paying buyer is negotiated with. There are thousands of Automated Value Models (AVM) on the net, but they do not understand your location, curb appeal, condition, amenities, functionality, etc. We can help you focus on a range of higher probability selling through our pricing analysis. Going to market is the key to success. The exposure of your property is why you hire us to help you market your home to get the highest return. A highly advanced marketing plan covers all of the bases to gather the most views and buyer activity on a property. Presentation is so important as we hire the best stagers and photographers to showcase our listings to the highest ability, however the seller is in control of how well the home shows; and does it pass the ‘sniff test’?
Most of these items are out of our control, but in order to sell for the highest price in the shortest amount of time, these 3 foundational pillars are important to discuss.
We enjoy keeping an eye on average mortgage rates at Mortgage News Daily because they do a good job in trending the Treasury Yields, which have more of a direct correlation with mortgage rates. The FED influences short term rates, but the mortgage industry tends to make moves prior to the FED meetings to speculate positioning ahead of policy changes. The FED is expected to cut rates as the inflationary numbers that the FED uses to make policy are showing significant signs of slowing down. The August CPI report shows that inflation grew 2.5%, but the core (minus food and energy) grew at 3.2%. The FED’s goal is 2%, but not only to get to 2%, but they have communicated that they want to see an average of 2%. We are a long way from that; over a year at this pace.
We do appreciate some local lenders keeping us updated weekly on their mortgage rates, which appear to be lower than the national averages. Rates will depend on each buyer’s situation regarding the sales price, type of financing, income, debt to income ratios, credit scores, etc to determine the risk of the borrower. Using a good & local lender that has experience and communicates well is our advice.
April Monthly Market Real Estate Update
Activity is always expected to pick up in the Springtime, however this year it appears to be either delayed for the most part, or we won’t see the big activity increase like we typically do. We are seeing the number of sales increase a little, however with it being an election year and interest rates as high as they are comparable to over the last 15 years, it wouldn’t be surprising if our Spring and Summer selling seasons were pushed down a bit. We will probably see a selling season similar to last year.The CPI Report that came out yesterday shows inflation rose .04% in March and 3.5% from this time last year, which is higher than the FED was hoping for. The PCE, another factor considered by the FED, rose 2.5% in February. This data is more than likely supporting the expectation that the FED won’t make any rate cuts anytime soon; thus delaying relief for many home buyers. Mortgage News Daily is reporting the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate at 7.34% at the time of this writing. Many buyers who are waiting on the fence for rates to come down might be waiting there longer than they expected. Unfortunately homeownership costs continue to increase with the recent changes required by the NAR Settlement Agreement allegedly coming in June of this year. If you missed our response to this and all of the media reporting,
you can read it here. Fortunately we are finding ways around some of the challenges for the benefit of buyers. Stay tuned, though because the Department of Justice will weigh in to influence the direction that the industry will ultimately take.
Homeownership continues to see new challenges, but we are doing everything we can to promote this amazing privilege that creates healthy & stable families and encourages wealth for all. In the midst of it all, people are still moving around as we saw over 600 transactions last month. Pending listings are up and we are experiencing more showings throughout the market. Warmer weather is on the way and us Oregonians will get tired of being cooped up from the rain.
We continue to strive to bring the highest level of knowledge, service and professionalism. We go the extra mile to take care of the people you care about. There are a lot of moving parts and we are happy to spend the time discussing everything in further detail. Let us know if you have any questions or need any additional information.
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 2320 | Up 3.5% from last month & up 16.7% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 1073 | Up 16% from last month & up 5.6% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 622 | Up 15% from last month & down 16% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 1129 | Up 28.5% from last month & up 14% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 3.46 | Up 5% from last month & up 35% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 98.16% | Down 0.2% from last month & down 0.5% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | 27%* | Up 11.7% from last month & down 31% from this time last year |
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $456,000 | Down 0.2% from last month & up 2.7% from this time last year |
| Average Residential Sales Price **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | $487,000** | Even from last month & up 1.7% from this time last year |
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | 6.82%*** | Down 0.9% from last month & up 8.2% from this time last year |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) **** FED’s Goal is 2% | 3.5%**** | Up 9% from last month & down 35% from this time last year |
+Some numbers are rounded
February Monthly Market Real Estate Update
With the inventory still very low historically, our experience is that many sellers are still expecting their homes to sell quickly. Some homes are still receiving multiple offers and moving quickly, however most of them are taking some time to move. The ones that are well prepared, detailed-clean, and have amenities that every buyer wants are the ones that get the most attention. However, buyers are moving much slower these days. Interest rates have held pretty flat over the last two months, so many buyers are holding tight waiting to see if they are going to drop even further. The average Days on Market for Residential listings is 120 days from listing to closing. Compare that with January of 2023 which was only 85 Days! An average time for a transaction in Escrow is somewhere between 30 and 45 days.
We are seeing more activity on our listings, which has been a very encouraging sign. As the weather warms, we will see that activity pick up substantially. Showing activity within the WVmls has increased 40% in the last 3 weeks alone! We can always expect people to start moving around the closer we get to the Summer months with school & job changes, and the fact that people get the itch for adventure during the Summer months. We would expect the market to slow down again the closer we get to the Fall, but that is speculation. The last CPI report made the Federal Reserve hold rates again and the recent jobs report shows the “experts” that the economy is still moving along. It is an election year, so expect the headlines to be increasingly positive on the economy! It will be a very interesting year.
Our sales for January in the WVmls was 524 units, which is the lowest we’ve had in the Month of January since 2015 when we had 487 sales. In 2017 we had 768 sales in January to give you a better frame of reference. Since we specialize in Residential units, we have brought our attention that we only had 330 Single Family Residential detached homes sold in January. The average sales price did tick up since the end of last year and the List/Sold price ratio is still holding very strong. There are a number of price reductions on the market so it is important to note that the advertised price is the standard being used for that statistic. Many sellers are having to reduce their asking prices in order to encourage more activity. Pricing is critical in this current market. The days of “testing the market” are over for most people, however timing can always be a surprise. We have witnessed a number of homes sit for quite some time and then receive a bunch of activity.
It is so important for sellers to take the time to prepare their homes for the market. Detail cleaning baseboards, window tracks, and all the cracks and crevices are where the smells hide. Replacing end of life appliances and systems and roofs are going to make the home more sellable and worth more to buyers. Washing windows, caulking and painting, removing moss and all of the cosmetic items are so important to give buyers confidence that they are buying a home that has been taken care of. Most of the consultations before listing take quite a bit of time and some investment. The sooner a seller gives those details attention, the better experience it will be; and it usually costs less. Waiting to go to market or until a buyer ties up the property usually costs the sellers more money and a less than desired experience.
Our goals are always to focus on our main points of emphasis:
- Advanced Marketing, Presentation & Exposure
- Valuable & Success Negotiations
- Keeping our Clients protected through a Smooth Transaction
You have a lot of options, but we believe we are the best to serve you. You always get what you pay for.
| Current Active Listings (All Types) | 2261 | Down 1.9% from last month & up 11.4% from this time last year |
| Current Pending Listings | 844 | Up 14.3% from last month & down .4% from this time last year |
| Sold Listings Last Month | 524 | Up 4.5% from last month & up 5.7% from this time last year |
| New Listings Last Month | 814 | Up 35% from last month & up 6.3% from this time last year |
| Months of Inventory | 3.33 | Down 2% from last month & up 32% from this time last year |
| % List to Sold Ratio | 99.10% | Up .7% from last month & up 1.3% from this time last year |
| Absorption Rate | 23%* | Up 4.4% from last month & down 8.3% from this time last year |
| *Based on current active listings vs sold listings for the past month | ||
| Average Sales Price in All Categories | $467,000 | Up 2.4% from last month & down 2.1% from this time last year |
| Average Residential Sales Price | $495,000** | Up .8% from last month & up 5% from this time last year |
| **Based on Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics | ||
| Average Owner Occupied Interest Rates | 6.63%*** | Even from last month & up 8% from this time last year |
| ***Based on Freddiemac.com Statistics of 30 year fixed mortgage | +Some numbers are rounded |